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How Do These Factors Affect Methanol?
Jan 04, 2018

A cool autumn rain, "National Day holiday, the autumn getting stronger, so that people feel out of the obvious chill.And return to the methanol market is showing a different kind of situation, different supply and demand around the promotion of the background, the domestic methanol Differentiation up or down the trend to start again.

The reason, we are no lack of methanol from the current interpretation of several major hot words to analyze:

(A) the supply of incremental variables continued role

A. Coke enterprises limited production

Data show that China's current coke oven gas methanol production capacity of about 11 million tons, of which accounted for 43% of North China, Northwest accounted for 22%, 17% of Shandong; East China, Northeast and other places accounted for relatively limited. With the autumn and winter air pollution prevention and control work is gradually carried out in early October coke enterprises in Hebei Province has opened a "limited production" mode, noted that the current Hebei Baoding, Handan and Xingtai are involved, the corresponding methanol production enterprises focus on 30% -50% .

It is worth mentioning that the implementation of the Shanxi Coke enterprises limit the general implementation of the draft before the understanding, in addition to individual methanol plant a slight decline, the remaining multi-device to maintain the previous situation, Linfen area temporarily affect the overall supply temporarily; Jincheng part Coal head unit scheduled maintenance. According to the relevant information, "Since the end of September, the domestic coke industry has been facing the assessment of compliance with environmental protection equipment standards. As a result, some coke enterprises were forced to stop work." It is noted that the coke enterprises in Linfen, Shanxi, are now at the assessment stage of corporate environmental compliance, Illegal behavior has been improved, so the temporary impact of limited production temporarily.

Relevant data, Shanxi coke oven gas methanol production capacity of 2.8 million tons, of which about 45% of Linfen, Changzhi, Luliang accounted for 18%, 14%; At present, Linfen, Changzhi have released the 2017 autumn and winter air pollution control tackling action plan Follow-up supervision of limited production still need further attention.

In addition, the convening of the Ninth National People's Congress approaching, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding chemical projects will continue to tighten the production limit measures; the other into the heating season, coke enterprises must pay close attention to the intensity of the corresponding changes in the air quality may be.

B. New production capacity

Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 1 million tons of methanol plant put into operation by the end of September, noted that during the National Day products have been launched for export, sales in North Lushan-based. Shandong Mingshui 950,000 tons annual output of two sets of devices operating well, the load is higher. As one of the main consuming places of methanol in Shandong, the growth of the supply in the region is bound to have a direct impact on the local stock and foreign goods. After the holiday in Shandong methanol market also "took the lead" showed some loose.

C. Installation stop / overhaul

Before the winter, the domestic methanol production plant to start more routine maintenance, involving companies: Yi Gao, Cathay Pacific, Zhong Hao, Huating, Ning coal, at present some of the devices have been resumed; Gansu Huating annual output of 600,000 tons on October 10 Day parking maintenance for 20 days, Shanxi Jincheng part of the project is still suspended due to environmental monitoring. The other long-term Thai, Tung Wah, Hebi coal plant maintenance expected maintenance.

In terms of the operation of international installations, the recent overhaul in Southeast Asia has been relatively concentrated. In addition, due to the influence of the 19 major vessels, the shipping of Jiangsu Province is slightly affected by the shipment. It is estimated that the import and export of goods will be operating at relatively low levels in September and October.

(B) the new project has attracted much attention

In 2013, the methanol-to-olefin industry leapt strongly to the top of the downstream methanol consumption. In addition, due to the high proportion of new downstream methanol consumption, the pulling effect on local and surrounding methanol markets became more apparent as new projects were gradually launched. Among them, since September, domestic MTO / P project overhaul also opened the "curtain" during the period of some projects supporting methanol plant overhaul also phased stimulation of raw materials.

In addition, Jilin Cornell MTO project with an annual output of 600,000 tons in an orderly manner, the project is expected to vote in the fourth quarter drove, follow-up of raw materials mining enterprises to start the situation should be concerned about.

In addition to the above points, the sustained high prices of raw coal, the adjustment of industrial gas price, the impact of rainy and snowy weather and the approaching of the Ninth National Congress on the local transport, and other factors continue to pay attention.

In the short term, however, the market pressure in the major producing regions will still be sluggish. However, the northern markets led by Shandong are facing a surge in supply, a relative weak demand and a long-term arbitrage closure of the ports It is expected that the adjustment period will still be weak in the short term. However, there are still more "back-to-back" futures guidelines in the ports to be adjusted accordingly. The macroeconomic, capital and related commodity trends still require close attention.