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China's Refined Oil Supplier Market Diversified Competitive Landscape
Feb 08, 2018

February 1, 2018, organized by China Petrochemical, China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute, China International Petrochemical Union Co., Ltd., Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Social Science Literature Publishing House co-host oil Blue Book conference held in Beijing, jointly issued "Blue Book of Petroleum: China Petroleum Industry Development Report (2018)." According to the Blue Book, demand side of China's refined oil market improved in 2017 with an apparent consumption of 320 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the same period of last year. From a supply-side perspective, a diversified competitive landscape has been formed. lianyou (Source: Internet)


This book is not only China's first oil blue book, but also the first time for Sinopec to share the opinions, opinions and judgments of the oil market with petroleum practitioners both at home and abroad. This book is of high application value and is of great value to China in enhancing its leadership in the global petroleum and petrochemical industry. The right to speak is of great importance.


For the first time, China overtook the United States as the world's largest importer of crude oil


For the first time in 2017, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest importer of crude oil. In 2017, China's crude oil import volume reached 843 million barrels / day, up 10% over the previous year. For the first time, it surpassed the import volume of 7.91 million barrels per day in the United States and led the global oil trade to accelerate eastward. With the continued tightening of the export resources of the Middle East crude oil, the proportion of China's crude oil imports from the Middle East will continue to drop. The United States will become an important source of growth for China's crude oil imports. The number of crude oil imports to the United States is expected to exceed 10 million tons. Russia's crude oil exports to China will further increase eastward and will remain the largest source of crude oil imports in China. China's crude oil imports from Brazil will further increase. As the largest oil refiner in the world and its largest subsidiary, Sinopec International LLC, as the world's largest oil trader, has a growing influence and voice in the global oil market.


In 2018, the demand for refined oil in China will increase by 3% over the previous year. Demand side of China's refined oil market improved in 2017, with an apparent consumption of 320 million tons. From the supply side, the capacity of the three major conglomerates, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, dropped from 83% in 2007 to 66%; other state-owned enterprises accounted for about 9%; and the proportion of private refineries from 2007 Of the 11% to 24%, refined oil market supply structure of the main body of multiple competition has been formed. In 2018, the marketization reform of China's refined oil market will continue. It is estimated that the demand for refined oil in China will increase by about 3% over 2018 in 2018. In the medium and long term, the demand growth rate of China's refined oil market will gradually slow down. Among them, the "13th Five-Year" diesel consumption during the period before falling into the plateau, gasoline consumption peaked in 2025-2030, kerosene demand peak will be delayed for about 10 years.


In 2017, the world's refined oil demand will increase rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2018. 2018 China's refined oil export policy will continue to tilt to general trade, refined oil exports continue to maintain a moderate growth, the total is expected to exceed 41 million tons, an increase of about 4%. In the medium and long term, taking into account the slowdown in the growth of domestic demand for refined oil and the commencement of operation of a number of large-scale refineries around 2020, the export of refined products will maintain a trend of rising year by year and the trend of cross-border trade and ship assembly will become a trend that will affect Asia Pacific and even the world The pattern of refined oil trade has an important impact.


Relying on a sound foundation of petroleum industry, China enjoys a vast space for investment and cooperation with the countries along the "Belt and Road" in the future. China has a good foundation for the oil industry and there is ample room for future investment and cooperation.


China's oil refining industry has entered a phase of transformation and upgrading


The global investment in exploration and development has increased slightly, and the potential for future exploration and development of petroleum in our country is greater. US shale oil exploration activities continue to increase in 2018, the U.S. crude oil output is expected to exceed 10 million barrels / day, and the Middle East and Latin America have become important areas for conventional oil and gas production growth. China is rich in oil resources with a large total scale and a relatively low level of exploration, development and utilization, with a great potential for future development. It is also imperative to strengthen exploration and increase the number of recoverable recoverable reserves. With the rebalancing of the international oil market and the steady growth of the domestic economy, the upstream oil industry is expected to maintain a steady development for a long period of time. The main measures are to strengthen the geological investigation and evaluation of oil and gas resources, speed up the reform of the oil and gas resources management system, strengthen the innovation of key technologies and major equipment, and improve the supportive policies for oil and gas exploration and development. Strive to stabilize the oil output in the country at 200 million tons in the medium and long term.


The global oil refining industry is undergoing profound changes. China's oil refining industry has entered a phase of transformation and upgrading. Refining industry entered a new round of economic cycle, refining margins continued to improve, the main refining center showing a differentiated development trend. At present, China's oil refining industry ranks second in the world in terms of production capacity. In the future, industrial restructuring and market-oriented reform will become an important part of the restructuring and upgrading of the refining industry. Supervision of the refined oil industry will continue to be further promoted. In 2017, China's primary crude oil processing capacity exceeded 800 million tons / year, an increase of 3.9% over the same period of previous year, accounting for 17% of global capacity. As the market environment changes, China's oil refining industry is entering a phase of transformation and upgrading.


By 2050 energy development or will go through three stages. Based on the national energy revolution strategy and judgments on the economic and social development both at home and abroad, the energy development from now till 2050 can be divided into three stages: structural optimization period, structural transition period and system shaping period. Among them, before 2020, the structure optimization period, the total energy consumption will be controlled at about 5 billion tons of standard coal, non-fossil fuels accounted for the proportion of total primary energy consumption reached about 15%; 2021-2030 for the structural transition period, energy Total consumption will be controlled at 6 billion tons of standard coal, natural gas will usher in rapid development opportunities, by 2020 a share of 15% of primary energy consumption, non-fossil fuels accounted for primary energy consumption accounted for up to 20%; 2031-2050 System setting period, the total energy consumption stabilized at about 6 billion tons of standard coal, "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy system basically formed.